As the 2025 NFL season approaches, all eyes are on the opening week matchups. While Super Bowl favorites like Philadelphia and Buffalo dominate headlines, smart bettors know the real value often lies with the underdogs. Several Week 1 teams are flying under the radar but have the potential to cover spreads or even win outright.
These aren’t random picks; they’re calculated plays based on roster upgrades, matchup history, and offseason developments that books may be undervaluing. Here are the most compelling underdog bets to watch as the season kicks off.
Dallas Cowboys (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles
A touchdown underdog on opening night might seem generous, until you dig deeper. The Eagles destroyed the Cowboys last year, winning both games by a combined 75-13 margin.
However, context matters. Dak Prescott missed over half the season, and his absence crippled the offense. He’s back, healthy, and now has George Pickens lining up opposite CeeDee Lamb. That’s arguably the most dangerous WR tandem in the NFC.
Philadelphia’s defense also lost a few key pieces in the offseason, making them slightly more vulnerable to vertical attacks.
While it’s unlikely Dallas pulls off a win in Philadelphia, a backdoor cover is well within reach, a scenario bettors at FanDuel Sportsbook will be watching for closely in this high-emotion divisional showdown.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Friday night game in Brazil offers bettors one of the best underdog values of the week. Kansas City has had Justin Herbert’s number historically, but this version of the Chargers is different.
Jim Harbaugh transformed the team in just one season, adding six wins to their previous record. Despite a playoff stumble against Houston, this squad is improved across both sides of the ball.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are still reeling from their Super Bowl loss and carry an aging offensive line into Week 1. This matchup on a neutral field levels the playing field, giving the Chargers a real chance to open the season with a statement win.
New York Giants (+7) at Washington Commanders
Washington is riding the momentum of Jayden Daniels’ record-setting rookie year, but a 7-point spread feels inflated.
The Giants quietly improved over the offseason, bringing in Russell Wilson and bolstering a roster that needed leadership and experience under center. Even with a brutal 2025 schedule ahead, Week 1 is winnable.
The Commanders’ defense still lacks consistency, and if New York can protect Wilson, this game could be tighter than expected.
This is a strong candidate for one of those early-season surprises that disrupt the betting landscape, exactly the kind of scenario that seasoned fans analyze when breaking down NFL trends and betting strategies.
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
This one is less about Cleveland and more about what Cincinnati has failed to fix. Despite a hot finish to 2024, the Bengals’ defense remains a concern, particularly against the run and in red zone coverage. Joe Flacco isn’t flashy, but his experience matters. The Browns might lack long-term upside, but this is Week 1. They’ll be healthy, at home, and fired up for a rivalry clash.
The Bengals’ defense allowed 30+ points in six games last year. If that trend continues, Cleveland could keep things close, or even pull off an upset.
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) vs Arizona Cardinals
Yes, the Saints are starting one of the least experienced QB groups in the league. But in Week 1, chaos often reigns. Arizona has momentum, but banking on Kyler Murray’s health and consistency has burned bettors before.
On the other hand, a well-coached, conservative Saints offense may not need to score much to cover the spread. A solid defensive showing and just a few explosive plays might be enough. With the public likely hammering the Cardinals, this game sets up as a classic contrarian play.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta swept the Bucs last season, and while Tampa has the more complete roster on paper, Michael Penix Jr. might be ready for his moment. Both of his 2024 losses came in overtime. That says more about game management than his ability to move the ball.
If Penix can avoid early turnovers, Atlanta’s offense could surprise. The Falcons’ defense also improved down the stretch last year and should keep Baker Mayfield in check. This game could easily come down to a field goal either way, making the underdog an intriguing bet.
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence and Travis Hunter might dominate the headlines, but don’t sleep on Bryce Young. After a rocky rookie year, Young bounced back in his second season with poise and efficiency. He now has Tetairoa McMillan, a gifted No. 8 overall pick, who can stretch the field and give Carolina a true WR1 for the first time in years.
This could be a high-scoring affair, but Carolina’s offense has the weapons to keep pace. If Jacksonville’s defense stumbles early, the Panthers may do more than just cover.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) at New England Patriots
This isn’t Pete Carroll’s first rebuild, and his reunion with Geno Smith could rejuvenate the Raiders quickly. With a dynamic rookie RB in Ashton Jeanty and a breakout candidate at tight end in Brock Bowers, Las Vegas has scoring weapons to test New England’s retooled defense.
The Patriots are banking on Drake Maye taking a big step in Year 2, but offensive cohesion remains a question mark. That uncertainty, paired with a conservative play style, makes a Raiders upset more realistic than oddsmakers suggest.
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins have been here before, loaded with talent but overshadowed by Tua Tagovailoa’s injury concerns. The offensive line upgrades are no joke. With better protection, Miami becomes a different team, capable of scoring 30+ on any given Sunday.
The Colts’ quarterback situation is murky. Daniel Jones replaces a regressing Anthony Richardson, but Jones was cut last season. That’s not exactly a confidence booster. If Miami’s defense does its job, the offense should handle the rest.
Worth Tracking Early
Week 1 is often where the lines are softest. Emotions, momentum, and incomplete scouting reports can tilt the playing field. Underdogs, especially those getting 3 points or more, consistently outperform market expectations in the season’s first slate.
This year, don’t just follow the crowd. Study the matchups, understand the narratives, and identify which dogs have real bite.
*This article is based on information and analysis available as of 2025/07/29, and is subject to change. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice. Readers should consult official sources before making any wagering decisions.