The identity of the best player in any sport is usually a subjective opinion. People will sit in a bar (or on social media) arguing all day long about Messi vs. Ronaldo, Lebron vs. Jordan, Brady or Rice, and so on. There isn’t really a correct answer. Yet, there are times when a player has an indisputably great season, even when they are arguably not the best player in their league.
Which brings us to MVP betting. It’s an interesting play in sports betting, because you aren’t betting on the outcome of a game or tournament; you’re betting on sentiment. Yes, there are times when the voting panels for MVP awards get it wrong, but the vast majority of times it goes as expected, and that makes it something that should not be ignored by bettors. It can be a good way to pick up an (almost) guaranteed profit.
Is there a catch? Sure. It is arguably a market that requires timing. For instance, lumping on the MVP markets’ preseason is not going to offer anything remotely locking like a lock – picking a relative outsider like Matthew Stafford in the NFL last season is not easy. Yet, the question of timing comes in weighing up betting value with the likelihood of the player in question being crowned.
SGA a lock in the NBA MVP betting
Consider, for instance, the NBA MVP betting for 2025/26, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for most of the season. He’s expected to get the nod for his second MVP in the coming weeks, and anything else would be a massive shock. Yet, sportsbooks are not stupid, and they are going to price that market to reflect the overwhelming consensus that SGA gets the accolade.
There are, most certainly, other pitfalls, not least injuries. There is perhaps nothing as galling as backing a player to win an accolade, seeing them on the right trajectory, then witnessing providence take a hand to rule them out for the majority of a campaign. And, as mentioned, there are always rare occasions when the market is completely wrong.
Yet, we’d argue that it’s always a case to find value in the market. For example, there is the current Ballon d’Or market to crown the world’s best soccer player. Okay, so it’s not technically an MVP market, but it’s basically the same thing.
An interesting market for the Ballon d’Or
Anyhow, it looks wide open at the moment in terms of the betting, with names like Harry Kane and Lamine Yamal in the mix. There’s no firm agreement with sportsbooks on the favorite yet, so it’s something to keep an eye on, because you can snap up some value. The World Cup could be a key driver of sentiment on this market, and it might be the case that you can beat the sportsbooks before the odds start shortening.
Thus, if we can answer the premise of this article, it is that, yes, MVP betting is more predictable than other markets. It’s one of the most certain bets in sports right now that SGA gets the NBA regular-season MVP. Yet, it is also about timing the market, finding value in the odds. That can apply to all types of sports betting strategies – from horse racing to stats-based football props – but there is a specific wave of sentiment you are looking to ride with MVP markets. Like all betting, it’s not always easy, but it can be satisfying when you get it right.